Populism and the Skill-Content of Globalization

Author: Frédéric Docquier (LISER, Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research.) Stefano Iandolo (DISES, Università degli Studi di Salerno. )Hillel Rapoport (Paris School of Economics, CEPII, LISER and CEPR.)Riccardo Turati (DEA, Universitat Autónoma de Barcelona. )Gonzague Vannoorenberghe (IRES-LIDAM, Université catholique de Louvain. )
Posted: 5 August 2025

Abstract

We propose new ways to measure populism, using the Manifesto Project Database (1960-2019) as main source of data. We characterize the evolution of populism over 60 years and show empirically that it is significantly impacted by the skill-content of globalization. Specifically, imports of goods which are intensive in low-skill labor generate more right-wing populism, and low-skill immigration shifts the distribution of votes to the right, with more votes for right-wing populist parties and less for left-wing populist parties. In contrast, imports of high-skill labor intensive goods, as well as high-skill immigration flows, tend to reduce the volume of populism.
JEL codes: D72, F22, F52, J61, P00
Keywords: Globalization, Populism, Immigration, Trade