Germs in the Family: The Short- and Long-Term Consequences of Intra-Household Disease Spread

Author: Meltem Daysal (University of Copenhagen)Hui Ding (Fudan University)Maya Rossin-Slater (Stanford University)Hannes Schwandt (Northwestern University)
Posted: 19 August 2025

Abstract

Preschool-aged children get sick frequently and spread disease to other family members. Despite the universality of this experience, there is limited causal evidence on the magnitudes and consequences of these externalities, especially for infant siblings with developing immune systems and brains. We use Danish administrative data to document that, before age one, younger siblings have 2-3 times higher hospitalization rates for respiratory conditions than older siblings. We combine birth order and within-municipality variation in respiratory disease prevalence among young children, and find lasting differential impacts of early-life respiratory disease exposure on younger siblings’ earnings, educational attainment, chronic respiratory health and mental health-related outcomes.
JEL codes: I1, J24
Keywords: respiratory illness, childhood sickness, externalities, long-term human capital impacts