Hotter Days, Wider Gap: The Distributional Impact of Heat on Student Achievement

Author: Mika Akesaka (Kobe University, Research Institute for Economics and Business Administration)Hitoshi Shigeoka (University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Public Policy)
Posted: 8 December 2025

Abstract

This study demonstrates that heat disproportionately impairs human capital accumulation among low-performing students compared with their high-performing peers, using nationwide examination data from 22 million students in Japan. Given the strong correlation between academic performance and socioeconomic background, this suggests that heat exposure exacerbates pre-existing socioeconomic disparities among children. However, access to air conditioning in schools significantly mitigates these adverse effects across all achievement levels, with particularly pronounced benefits for lower-performing students. These findings suggest that public investment in school infrastructure can help reduce the unevenly distributed damage caused by heat to student learning, thereby promoting both efficiency and equity.
JEL codes: I21, I24, Q54
Keywords: Heat, Distributional impact, Student achievement, Adaptation, Air conditioning, Children, Climate change