The Dynamics of Return Migration, Human Capital Accumulation, and Wage Assimilation

Author: Jérôme Adda (Bocconi University)Christian Dustmann (RFBerlin)Joseph-Simon Görlach (Bocconi University)
Posted: 12 February 2022

Abstract

This article develops and estimates a dynamic model where individuals differ in ability and location
preference to evaluate the mechanisms that affect the evolution of immigrants’ careers in conjunction with
their re-migration plans. Our analysis highlights a novel form of selective return migration where those
who plan to stay longer invest more into skill acquisition, with important implications for the assessment
of immigrants’ career paths and the estimation of their earnings profiles. Our study also explains the
willingness of immigrants to accept jobs at wages that seem unacceptable to natives. Finally, our model
provides important insight for the design of migration policies, showing that policies that initially restrict
residence or condition residence on achievement shape not only immigrants’ career profiles through their
impact on human capital investment but also determine the selection of arrivals and leavers.
JEL codes: F22, J24, J61
Keywords: International migration, Human capital, Expectations