The Heterogeneous Earnings Impact of Job Loss Across Workers, Establishments, and Markets

Author: Susan Athey (Stanford University)Lisa K. Simon (Revelio Labs, New York)Oskar Nordström Skans (Uppsala University)Johan Vikström (IFAU Uppsala)Yaroslav Yakymovych (IBF Uppsala)
Posted: 19 March 2026

Abstract

Using rich Swedish administrative data, we apply causal machine learning methods to study how earnings losses after job displacement vary with observable characteristics that may be relevant for targeting policy interventions for workers. Heterogeneity in effects is as large within as across worker groups defined by age and schooling, and as large within as across establishments. A substantial portion of cross-establishment heterogeneity can be explained by industry and local labor market characteristics, suggesting a role for place- and industry-based targeting. The largest losses are concentrated among already vulnerable workers, indicating that well-designed targeting policies can improve both efficiency and equity.
JEL codes: J65, J21, J31, C45
Keywords: Plant closures, heterogeneous effects, GRF