Still Waters, Rapid Currents: Early Labor Market Transformation under Generative AI

Author: Anders Humlum (University of Chicago, Booth School of Business) • Emilie Vestergaard (University of Copenhagen, Department of Economics)
Posted: 20 March 2026

Abstract

We study the early labor market impacts of AI chatbots by linking large-scale adoption surveys to administrative labor market records in Denmark. We document rapid currents: most employers in exposed occupations have adopted chatbot initiatives, workers report productivity benefits, and new AI-related tasks are widespread. Yet these currents have not broken the surface: using difference-in-differences, we estimate precise null effects on earnings and recorded hours at both the worker and workplace levels, ruling out effects larger than 2% two years after the launch of ChatGPT. What moves is the structure of work: employers absorb AI through task reorganization—including new tasks in content generation, AI oversight, and AI integration—and adopters transition into higher-paying occupations where AI chatbots are more relevant, though still too few to move average earnings. Technological change reshapes work well before it surfaces in earnings or hours.
JEL codes: J23; J24; J31; O33
Keywords: Generative AI; Labor Markets