The RFBerlin Applied Economics Seminar series brings leading researchers to Berlin to share their latest work and engage with our community. We are pleased to welcome Evan K. Rose for this session, where he will share his work.
Evan K. Rose is Associate Professor of Economics (with tenure) in the Kenneth C. Griffin Department of Economics at the University of Chicago. He is a Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) and previously held a postdoctoral position at Microsoft Research New England (2020-2021). His research focuses on labour, human capital, discrimination, and crime.
Event Topic:
Employment Opportunities and Jail Bookings: Evidence from Hiring Assessment Thresholds
We study the effect of job opportunities on subsequent jail bookings using data from applicants to a large nationwide company offering hourly, entry-level positions. We employ a regression discontinuity design based on scores from a hiring assessment: crossing any of three score thresholds discontinuously increases an applicant’s probability of being hired. Among applicants marginally hired across the three thresholds, jail bookings fall by an estimated two-thirds. The effect is concentrated at the lowest score threshold, where estimated booking rates fall close to zero for hired applicants. This effect is driven by reductions in bookings related to violent crimes. Incapacitation due to time employed accounts for at most 30% of the observed effect. Owing to the large decrease in bookings for violent crimes, savings in social costs range from $5,000 to $10,000, accounting for 55-110% of marginal wages. These findings demonstrate that access to employment significantly reduces subsequent criminal justice contact among those seeking work, and especially for the most marginal job applicants.
Event Details:
Date: 17 November 2026
Time: 14:00–15:15
Participation: the seminar is open to the public and targeted to an academic audience.
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