Long-Run Effects of H-1B Immigration on the U.S. Economy

Author: Ran Abramitzky (Stanford)Leah Boustan (Yale)Ahmet Gulek (Stanford)Jens Hainmueller (Stanford)
Posted: 13 August 2026

Abstract

We study the effects of H-1B immigration on U.S. industries that employ H-1B workers and their trading partners. Using a novel cross-industry design and the 1999--2003 expansion of the H-1B visa cap for identification, we find that H-1B exposure raised incomes for natives and pre-existing immigrants, with gains concentrated in non-STEM occupations. Income gains propagate forward through supply chains to downstream industries but not backward to upstream industries, consistent with a productivity shock rather than a labor supply shock. We find no direct effect on patenting, suggesting that productivity gains arise from better task execution rather than patentable invention.
JEL codes: J15, J24, J61, L14, O31
Keywords: H-1B, High-skilled immigration, Synthetic control, Input-output networks, Task complementarity