Business Cycles and School-to-Work Transitions for Vocational Students: The Role of General Skills and Educational Opportunities

Author: Kari Vea Salvanes (Institute for Social Research (ISF))Asgeir Skålholt (Nordic Institute for Studies in Innovation, Research and Education (NIFU))
Posted: 20 August 2026

Abstract

This paper examines whether general skills and universal access to higher education (HE) shape vocational students' school-to-work transitions during recessions. We study how increased unemployment affects post-completion outcomes across institutional regimes that differ in curricular emphasis on general skills and access to HE – allowing us to identify effects of general skills alone and combined with HE access. Relative to a setting with limited general skills and no universal HE access, combining general skills with universal HE access more than halves labour-market scarring on earnings over the first six years after completion. General skills alone do not meaningfully affect labour-market scarring.
JEL codes: I28, I24, I21
Keywords: Dual vocational systems, general skills, access to higher education, business cycle fluctuations, scarring effects