Newcomers and Gatekeepers: Migrants’ Attitudes toward Immigration

Author: Jonathan Pardo (Humboldt Universität zu Berlin)Sulin Sardoschau (Humboldt Universität Berlin )
Posted: 8 July 2026

Abstract

Do migrants become more anti-immigration over time? How do incumbents react to new arrivals? We link large-scale survey data to local immigration flows across 138 European regions from 2002 to 2024, identifying effects via a leave-out shift-share instrument within a triple-difference design. Immigrants arrive strongly pro-immigration, but support erodes over time, halving the native-immigrant gap within two decades. Exposure to new inflows contributes to this convergence: a rising local immigrant share reduces pro-immigration attitudes for both groups, with substantially larger effects for first-generation immigrants. Low-skilled incumbents respond more to inflow size, high-skilled to newcomers' skill composition.
JEL codes: D74, J15, D83, Z10, D72
Keywords: Immigration, backlash, attitudes, newcomers