Tastes, ability or expected wages? The intended choice of college majors by students in Italy

Author: Giorgio Brunello (University of Padova)Francesco Campo (University of Padova)Elisabetta Lodigiani (University of Padova)Martina Miotto (university of Padova)Lorenzo Rocco (University of Padova)
Posted: 23 February 2026

Abstract

We investigate the factors influencing the intended college major choices of high school students in Italy, ranking the relative importance of expected earnings, perceived ability, and major-specific tastes, that we measure directly using a Coller and Williams game. We find that major-specific tastes and self-assessed ability are significantly more influential in shaping academic intentions than mean expected earnings at age 30. We estimate that a one standard deviation change in the taste for (resp. perceived ability in) a given major increases the odds of choosing that major (relative to Humanities, our benchmark scenario) by 136.4% (resp. 114.1%), far outweighing the 39.3% increase associated with a one standard deviation change in mean expected earnings.
JEL codes: I21, I23
Keywords: College major choices, student expectations, nonmonetary rewards