The Motherhood Effect on Earnings amid Declining Fertility: Evidence from Korea

Author: Jisoo Hwang (Seoul National University)Inkyung Yoo (Bank of Korea)
Posted: 21 August 2025

Abstract

Across developed countries, women’s earnings decline sharply following childbirth while men’s earnings remain unaffected. But how will the “motherhood effect” evolve as more women choose not to have children? We examine changes in the motherhood effect on earnings amid rising childlessness in South Korea, the country with the world’s lowest fertility rate. Using an event study framework and administrative data covering the entire population, we find that earnings losses after childbirth have increased across recent cohorts of mothers. We provide suggestive evidence that the expansion of parental leave and a stronger positive selection into motherhood contributed to this trend.
JEL codes: J16, J13
Keywords: Motherhood effect, child penalty, selection into motherhood, parental leave