When Offshoring Threatens Jobs: Lifelong Education and Occupation Choice

Author: Daisuke Adachi (Aarhus University)Lars Skipper (Aarhus University)
Posted: 21 November 2025

Abstract

Manufacturing job offshoring has displaced low-skilled workers lacking transition skills. Using Danish adult education and employer-employee data, we study how vocational training influences occupational choice and mitigates labor market shocks. Manufacturing workers trained in business services (BS) show a higher probability of transitioning to BS occupations via dynamic difference-in-difference analysis. We then propose and estimate a life-cycle model of training and occupation. Our model reveals that program take-up elasticity is lower than occupation choice elasticity, indicating insensitivity to program monetary value. Counterfactual wage subsidies tied to BS programs support manufacturing-to-BS transitions and reduce labor force exits, especially among older workers.
JEL codes: J24, J62, I21
Keywords: Adult vocational education, life-cycle discrete choice model, labor market resilience