Affective Polarization, Media Outlets, and Opinion Dynamics

Author: Sebastiano Della Lena (Monash University)Luca Paolo Merlino (ECARES, Universite libre de Bruxelles)Yves Zenou (Monash University)
Posted: 5 January 2026

Abstract

We study opinion dynamics in a social network consisting of two groups. Agents update their opinions by conforming to members of their own group while rejecting the views of the opposing group (affective polarization), and by listening to a media outlet that may provide biased information. We characterize the long-run opinions and identify when affective polarization and media bias lead to ideological polarization, persistent disagreement, or failures of learning. We also derive when information interventions or censorship improve learning and reduce disagreement, and when they backfire: better information helps only under specific media bias configurations and when directed to the agents we identify as most effective at propagating it through the network.
JEL codes: C7, D7, D85
Keywords: Signed Networks, Opinion Dynamics, Affective Polarization, Group Antagonism, Information Campaigns, Targeting.